Welcome to Murphy economics

"This web-site provides information on my current work analysing tax policy and the macroeconomy using economy-wide models. During my career, I have directed economic modelling activities at the Australian Treasury, the Office of EPAC, Access Economics, Econtech, KPMG and Independent Economics. I've now stepped down from directing modelling teams to divide my time between model-based research as a Visiting Fellow at the ANU and allied consulting services for government agencies. My biography provides further background."

Chris Murphy

Main New Contributions

The 2024-25 Federal Budget: Personal Income Tax Cuts and Fiscal Policy
My Submission to the Independent Review of the JobKeeper Payment
The 2023-24 Federal Budget: Inflation, Fiscal Policy, Income Tax
Review of State Government Revenue Forecasting Methods
Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 era: final published version
The Election, Fiscal Policy and an Outbreak of Inflation: AFR article
The 2022/23 Federal Budget, Fiscal Policy and Inflation
Dynamic mini-CGETAX model
Australia's company tax system: a poor recipe for a small open economy?
Optimal fiscal equalisation and Australia: 2018 update
Modelling Australian company tax reforms: updated for US reforms
Economic impact of macro shocks: report to PBO
Review of economic modelling at the Treasury
Modelling of the Company Tax Cut for The Treasury
Benefits of national economic reform: report to ACOLA
All New Contributions

I analyse economic issues using economy-wide models that I develop, including both macro-econometric models and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. I use these models in academic research for publication as well as in consulting work for government agencies. Using my latest Australian macro-econometric model, in 2021 I was the first forecaster to foresee the outbreak of inflation in Australia in 2022. I followed this with a detailed, widely-quoted analysis of Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 era. I have also used this model to estimate the potential gains from economic reforms in a study for the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) and to generate economic scenarios for the Parliamentary Budget Office. After developing the original Murphy models of Australia, in 1998-99 I developed the Monetary Model of Singapore (MMS) for the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

MMS continues today as the flagship model of the MAS, with my ongoing support. In 2016-17 I undertook a review of economic modelling at the Australian Treasury. In 2019-21 I advised The Treasury on the development of their new macro-econometric model, known as EMMA. Tax reform is analysed using the CGETAX model, which is designed for assessing the efficiency and incidence of the major Australian taxes. For example, the Treasury commissioned me to model the effects of the proposed cut in the company tax rate from 30 to 25 per cent. A new dynamic model of tax reform is under development. In 2022-23 I undertook a review of revenue forecasting for the NSW Treasury. I've also undertaken research into fiscal equalisation. This web-site provides more information on my models as well as the latest news on their use.