Welcome to Murphy economics

"This web-site provides information on my current work analysing tax policy and the macroeconomy using economy-wide models. During my career, I have directed economic modelling activities at the Australian Treasury, the Office of EPAC, Access Economics, Econtech, KPMG and Independent Economics. I've now stepped down from directing modelling teams to divide my time between model-based research as a Visiting Fellow at the ANU and closely allied consulting services for government agencies. My biography provides further background."

Chris Murphy

Main New Contributions

The 2022/23 Federal Budget, Fiscal Policy and Inflation
Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 era: latest version
Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 era: 26 October 2021 version
The 2021/22 Federal Budget
Analysis of the 2019/20 Federal Budget
Dynamic mini-CGETAX model
Australia's company tax system: a poor recipe for a small open economy?
Optimal fiscal equalisation and Australia: 2018 update
Modelling Australian company tax reforms: updated for US reforms
Economic impact of macro shocks: report to PBO
Modelling Australian company tax reforms
CGETAX: for modelling tax reform
Optimal fiscal equalisation and Australia
Review of economic modelling at the Treasury
Modelling of the Company Tax Cut for The Treasury
Independent macro model
Benefits of national economic reform: report to ACOLA
All New Contributions

I analyse economic issues using economy-wide models that I develop, including both computable general equilibrium (CGE) and macro-econometric models. I use these models in academic research for publication as well as in consulting work for government agencies. Tax reform is analysed using the CGETAX model, which is designed for assessing the efficiency and incidence of the major Australian taxes. For example, the Treasury commissioned me to model the effects of the proposed cut in the company tax rate from 30 to 25 per cent. A new dynamic model of tax reform is under development. I've also undertaken research into fiscal equalisation.

Turning to macro-econometric modelling, I estimated the potential gains from economic reforms in a study for the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA). I have also used my macro-econometric model to generate economic scenarios in macro analysis for the Parliamentary Budget Office. I provide support to some of the economic modelling activities of the Singapore Government. In 2016-17 I undertook a review of economic modelling at the Australian Treasury. In 2019-21 I advised The Treasury on the development of their new macro-econometric model. This web-site provides more information on my models as well as the latest news on their use.